安倍经济学真的失败了吗？

2016年3月22日， 美国经济学家Paul Krugman访问日本，和几个日本最高官员进行了一场非常重要的会议。

克鲁格曼目前是美国纽约城市大学(City University of New York)的经济学教授，他在2008年获得了诺贝尔经济学奖。克鲁格曼主要研究的方向是宏观经济学（经读者朋友提醒，更为确切的说法是在宏观经济学方面有些研究，也出过两本书），他在纽约时报网站上常年写博客，发表自己对各国经济的各种看法。

参加会议的有：

日本内阁总理：安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)

日本央行行长：黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)

日本财长：麻生太郎(Taro Aso)

内阁秘书长：菅義偉 （Yoshihide Suga）

从与会的人员你就可以看到，这堪称是日本决策层的最高级会议。这本是一场关起门来的秘密会议，媒体仅是在事后做了一些象征性的报道。但是Paul Krugman在自己的推特网站上贴了一篇会议纪要(Meeting Minutes)。有兴趣的朋友可以去Google一下就能下载下来看英文原版的纪要。我认真读了这份纪要，觉得里面有很多非常不错的信息，可以以一个很不错的视角来回答一些重要的问题，包括上面提到的安倍经济学。在这里和大家分享一下。

由于这份会议纪要比较长（都是英文的），因此我只会选一些比较重要的内容来评说一下。

1. 安倍发言

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In May of this year, we are going to be the host of the G7 Summit at Ise-Shima looking toward the forceful growth of the world economy..... This meeting would be a forum which will prepare grounds for the summit....

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伍治坚评述：2016年5月份，日本将在三重县伊势志摩以东道主身份主办G7峰会，届时世界上最重要的那些大国都会参加。日本领导层这次和克鲁格曼会面，也算是为快要来临的G7峰会做准备。

2. 克鲁格曼发言

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I really want to make four points. The first is that we are now in the world of pervasive economic weakness......The second is that the linkages among major economies are strong.....The third, which may be of particular concern here is, we are seeing the difficulty in achieving goals through even very bold and unconventional monetary policy......The fourth then is that monetary policy needs help from fiscal and possibly other policies but certainly on the fiscal side, and certainly does not need to be struggling against fiscal policy moving in the opposite direction.

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伍治坚评述：克鲁格曼开门见山，提出他今天要讲的内容主要有四点：首先，目前全世界的经济发展都比较弱；第二，各大主要经济体之间的联系非常紧密（一荣俱荣，一损俱损）；第三，即使很多经济体采取了非常激进的货币政策，也没有见有多大多好的效果；第四，货币政策需要财政政策加以辅助，而不是拖后腿。

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The Euro area looks a great deal now like Japan circa 1998, 1999. The fundamentals are similar. Working age population is shrinking. Technological drivers of investment do not seem strong, there appears to be just persistent weakness...And emerging markets are in big trouble, most particularly, the biggest emerging market which is right next door to you. China has been simmering with known for several years that there was going to be a big problem of adjustment, as it was no longer able to sustain that very high investment economy. They have not yet found a way to deal with it. The policy in China seems quite erratic, which is not a good sign, given what is happening.

Unquote

伍治坚评述：克鲁格曼觉得欧洲的基本面很差，就像1998/1999年的日本。他对中国尤其看衰，主要原因是中国已经很难维系以投资为主的增长模式，而且领导层的政策似乎非常摇摆不定。

克鲁格曼对中国从来都是口无遮拦，经常批评。比如在过去好几年，克鲁格曼经常批评中国政府过分低估人民币汇率，以至于在国际贸易中对其他国家造成不公平竞争。(Source:

)。事实上克鲁格曼看衰中国也不是一天两天的事了，比如在2015年9月，他就撰文指出中国的经济有很大麻烦，但是不一定对世界其他国家产生多大的影响。(Source:

)

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China is in big trouble. China which seemed to be a source of strength but also not very long ago we were accusing China I think correctly of manipulating its currency to keep it down. China is now in fact intervening to support its currency in the face of huge capital outflows. We believe that the capital flight in 2015 was about one trillion dollars. China has immense reserves but not

infinite reserves, which mean that depreciation of the renminbi becomes a real prospect and that will make life very difficult for the rest of us. So, all of this interdependence is there.

Unquote

伍治坚评述：但是这一次克鲁格曼面对日本领导集体时，口风有点变。他指出中国现在面临着巨额的资金外逃。据他的估计，2015年中国国内有差不多一万亿美元通过各种途径外逃（伍治坚注：香港买保险，地下钱庄，出口结汇，海外直接投资，个人汇款，深圳罗湖人肉背包，合法的，非法的，灰色的）。人民币贬值箭在铉上，会给我们（指美国/日本）造成很大困难。这哥们前两年还老说中国人民币汇率估值过高，现在人民币汇率真的下降了，他又说会给他们造成很大困难。我就纳闷了，敢情都是中国人的错？

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If the world economy starts growing and inflation picks up, we know what to do. Mr. Kuroda, Mrs. Yellen, Mr. Draghi have had the tools to deal with that, no problem. If the world turns out to be weaker, then we are in deep trouble because we do not have effective tools, which mean that it is very important to err on the side of being more expansionary.

Unquote

伍治坚评述：克鲁格曼是一个坚定的财政扩张派。他在多次场合（包括这次面见日本领导团）表示，政策制定者（中央银行）制定的经济政策，宁愿过宽，也不能太紧。如果政策过宽，导致通货膨胀，央行有很多方法和经验可以应对。但是如果反过来经济陷入通缩或者衰退，那么央行可以做的就没有那么多。

这样的想法应当说是很有争议性的。比如曾经吃过通货膨胀很大苦头的德国人，就完全不信这一套。在德国人看来，央行的主要职责在于控制货币供应量，谨防过度的通货膨胀。日本在很长一段时间也是照德国人的逻辑行事的，直到现任央行行长黑田东彦上任。他的前任白川方明和前欧洲央行行长特里谢在制定货币政策上的观点比较一致，坚决反对经济体出现任何过度通胀，只要有一些苗头就开始压制。克鲁格曼对那两位央行行长也有过很多批评。

这里克鲁格曼总结了他的结论： So, this is the time for expansion. It should be coordinated as much as possible. I know the G7 Summit is coming up. Ideally we would have everyone agreeing on a coordinated fiscal expansion. 简而言之就是大家一起花钱搞建设增加需求刺激经济。

3.安倍发言

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We were talking during that time that a rocket has to go out of the atmospheric region, which means that an escape velocity has to be earned in order to lift the Japanese economy out of deflation and we were looking for a good speed to do that. That was a priority that we have been talking about. Hence, the rest of the world has been thinking about the fiscal spending and Japan should also come up with the fiscal spending in a coordinated fashion. We have been talking about that. But we worry about the accumulated debt. That is a source of another concern. What to do about it? But Governor Kuroda took a policy to introduce negative interest rates so that the 10 year JGBs yield turns negative at the moment. So, we would like to take advantage of this situation and Japan should come up with a fiscal spending.

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伍治坚评述：安倍在两年前见过克鲁格曼，当时克鲁格曼给安倍开出的经济方子其实和现在也差不多，就是要通过财政政策刺激需求，提高通胀，将日本拉出流动性陷阱。从这里可以看出，安倍内阁对克鲁格曼还是非常敬重的，因此他的建议对他们很有影响力。当时的考虑是，要把日本经济拉出通缩的泥潭，需要像发送卫星那样，给它一个助力。当这个助力足够大的时候，卫星一旦脱离地球引力到了外太空，那么事情就成了，下面就可以自动围绕地球运转了。所以当时安倍提出了三支利箭，希望给经济以一定的助力。

但是日本政府也受很多外部条件的限制，其中最令人担忧的问题就是其债台高筑。上面来自于IMF的数据你可以看到，日本的政府债务占到其GDP的250%，是所有发达国家中最高的，远高于其他任何一个发达国家。这也是为什么安倍特别提到：But we worry about the accumulated debt。那么克鲁格曼是怎么回答的呢？

4.克鲁格曼发言

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The case for spending now is quite strong despite the debt. It is true for multiple reasons. First, fiscal stimulus is very important as an aid to monetary policy in breaking out of deflation.... one thing we have learned from Japan but also from other advanced countries is that stable advanced nations that borrow in their own currencies have a very long road for them to have a fiscal crisis. People have been betting against JGBs since about 2000. All of them have suffered financial disaster. The robustness of the market is very strong. You have your own currency. The worst that could happen would be that the yen would depreciate which would be a good thing from your point of view. I do not think that is a thing to be worried about.

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伍治坚评述：别担心，你的债务根本没啥可担心的。好多人从2000年开始就卖空日本国债，到现在都亏了好多钱。日本国债市场非常坚韧。你可以自己印钞，想印多少就印多少，所以你不存在违约的可能性。最坏情况是你需要印好多日元来偿还你的国债而导致通胀，那不正是你想要的么？把克鲁格曼称为“印钞经济学家”可能名副其实。在他看来要把日本经济拖出泥潭最有效的方法是借更多的债，花掉他们，刺激需求，拉动经济增长。这和欧洲所有政府的价值观完全相背离，因此克鲁格曼被很多欧洲经济学家所不齿。

5. 麻生太郎发言

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During the 1930’s, I remember that in the United States likewise there was a situation of deflation. And the New Deal policies have been introduced by then President Roosevelt. As a result, it worked out very nicely, but the largest issue associated with it is that for a long period of time entrepreneurs and managers of companies did not go to make a capital investment by receiving the loan. It had continued up until the late 1930’s and that is the situation occurring in Japan too. The record high earnings have been generated by the Japanese companies but they would not spend in the capital investment. There are lots of earnings at hand on the part of the corporate in Japan. It should be used for wage hike or dividend payment or the capital investment, but they are not doing that. They are just holding onto their cash and deposits..... A similar situation had occurred in the US in the 1930’s. What solved the question? War! Because World War II had occurred during the 1940’s and that became the solution for the United States.

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伍治坚评述：当时看完麻生太郎的的发言，我的表情是这样的。哥们在说这话的时候考虑过亚洲人民的感受么？是不是为了刺激经济又要来一次卢沟桥事变，或者广岛（长崎）之恋？提这个问题智商有限，克鲁格曼的回答也没啥精彩之处我在这里就略过了。

6. 菅義偉发言

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There has been the declining of the commodity prices which had hit big blow on the developing countries in particular. Do you have any outlook on the impact coming from the declining commodity prices?

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伍治坚评述：大宗商品（以石油和金属为主）价格的下跌引起了全世界各国政策制定者的注意。这位官员对这个问题也很感兴趣。让我们来看看克大师是怎么回答的。

7. 克鲁格曼发言

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The impact is very severe on some emerging markets. It is interesting to know that the most important, biggest emerging market, which is China, is a commodity importer. So, on the whole, it is actually favorable for them but very severe consequences for Brazil and for Africa.

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伍治坚评述：大宗商品价格下跌，巴西和俄罗斯是重灾区。君不见巴西总统被弹劾，快要被炒鱿鱼了么？好在咱中国是绝大部分大宗商品的进口国，石油和金属价格下跌应该对中国更有利。

8. 安倍发言

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Within the European Union, they have the single currency and because of that there was the Greek problem. Other countries had the only limited options in terms of policy in those countries. Fundamentally, the Greek problem will persist within the European community according to some people. How do you see the situation?

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伍治坚评述：欧洲问题，也是日本长官们关心的焦点之一。当时我看完这篇会议记录以后有一个感受，就是其实那些高高在上的领导人，他们关心的经济问题和我们关心的焦点问题差不离，无非就是美国大选，中国经济，欧洲债务和移民，日本通缩。他们得到信息的途径，其实也就是互联网，一些统计局数据，以及和一些行业专家（比如诺贝尔经济学奖得主，大学教授，对冲基金经理，等等）进行会晤。让我们且看看克大师是怎么回答的。

9. 克鲁格曼发言

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The trouble, I think, with Europe reaches beyond the Euro. In fact in Europe right now, the economic issues have almost been pushed into the background by the refugee crisis, which is bringing about a crisis also in Schengen, in the open borders. This is in a way similar to the Euro. It is the incompleteness of the European project. They created a very open integrated system without the institutions necessary to make it work, which leaves Europe rather paralyzed and contributes to the problems we all have.....there is a quite significant possibility that Britain will vote to leave the European Union in a couple of months.

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伍治坚评述：在克大师眼里欧洲简直就是一无是处啊。经济上不来，有很大的移民和宗教冲突问题，欧元就是一个失败的货币，欧盟/申根就是一个失败的项目。甚至连英国都可能离开欧盟。关于英国是否会离开欧盟，我在这里也有一篇分析，有兴趣的朋友可以有空时看看（

)

伍治坚总结：就像我之前说过的那样，克鲁格曼头顶着诺贝尔奖的光环，在宏观经济研究方面是全世界数一数二的行业专家。他经常是日本最高领导人的座上客，因此他们关在门背后的会谈是我们分析日本经济政策，以及其对世界其他国家的影响的最重要材料之一。从他们的会谈可以得知，基本上一般分析日本宏观经济的那些分析师提到的问题，日本当局最高领导人都是非常清楚明白的。

如上图所示，这次克鲁格曼和安倍团队会面的宏观背景是日元对美元的汇率有了一定的升幅（在过去两个月内）。从这次会谈记录的字里行间，结合日本当局之前的操作习惯，可以推得日本当局应该不会过度容忍其货币升值。

事实上对于日本政府和央行来说，日元急速升值是他们最不希望看到的情况之一，因此如果日元继续往上的话，他们应该会出手干预。在这方面，其他一些小的经济体，比如新加坡，在让本币贬值时丝毫没有犹豫，说干就干。日本的经济政策领导核心，安倍晋三和黑田东彦都是坚定的货币政策鸽派，加上克鲁格曼一贯的刺激立场，因此日元在可预见的将来很难成为一个硬货币。

纵观当今世界各大发达国家(G7)，相对来说基本面最强的可能还只能是美国，其货币（美元）也是最坚挺的币种之一。其他各大经济体（日/欧/英/中等）各有各的问题，即使没有近忧也有远虑，这些经济体对美国的依赖和追随还没有发生本质上的改变。

如果美元币值相对坚挺，那么这对发展中国家来说，特别是那些有美元外债的国家并不是好消息。有许多发展中国家可能会持续面对资金外流的威胁，因为流动性的资金都会想要找硬货币来避险。下一个金融危机在这些发展中国家中的某一个发生，特别是原材料出口国（比如巴西/俄罗斯/印尼等）中发生，是值得大家注意的一个潜在危险。

希望对大家有所帮助。