如何看待俄罗斯和亚美尼亚关系的发展？ 第1页

我呢，也是看得这位自问自答的“朋友”过于“云石化”，就给这个问题贡献一点自己的了解吧。

两天前，我刚刚看了一份由Friedrich Ebert Stiftung^[1]在2017年初出版的报告——名字叫做：The Economic Situation in Armenia: Opportunities and Challenges in 2017

其中有一些数据是令人印象深刻的，比如：

Money transfers by individuals play a great role in Armenia’s economy. Over the past 10 years the inflow of remittances amounted to an annual average of 20% of the GDP. In 2015, there was a substantial decline in private transfers: 11.4% less inflow compared with the previous year. 62% of remittances came from the Russian Federation and the deterioration of Russia’s economy is the primary reason for the decline of cash inflow. This trend continued in 2016.

侨汇在亚美尼亚经济中扮演了重要的角色，在过去十年中，侨汇平均在亚美尼亚GDP总额的20%，在2015年（注本年度是克里米亚危机后的第一年，俄罗斯遭遇系统性的经济危机）侨汇流入下降了11.4%；来自俄罗斯的亚美尼亚侨汇占侨汇总额的62%，因此俄罗斯经济的恶化是本次侨汇流入下降的主要原因，这一下降趋势在2016年继续推进。

The trade balance continues to be negative; however, for the second year, it is showing a tendency to decrease. As opposed to the previous year, in 2015 the trade balance deficit decreased from 2.8 billion dollars to 1.7 billion dollars. As a result of the first three quarters of 2016, the deficit comprises 1 billion dollars – 230 million dollars less than that of the same period of the previous year. Unfortunately thedeficit reduction is due to the reduction in imports, while export growth is not generating a significant change.

苏联解体后，亚美尼亚一直是一个贫困的小国家，但是她却长期处于入超的状态。由入超产生的贸易赤字，被其大量侨汇所覆盖。2015年的贸易差额有所收窄，由2.8B缩减到1.7B，但是（不幸的是）这次收窄并不是因为亚美尼亚出口的增长，而是由于其侨汇下降带来的进口购买力的下降。

The biggest shock for the Armenian dram was recorded in December of 2014 when, as a result of the fall in oil prices, a drop in the Russian ruble exchange rate and other economic issues, the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose from 409.98 to 463.53 AMD within two months.

对亚美尼亚货币（Armenian dram ^[2]）的币值的最大的冲击来自于2014年12月的俄罗斯卢布贬值危机，当时在两个月内亚美尼亚货币（Armenian dram ）对美元的汇率由409.98 升至 463.53。

The largest volume of exports from RA continues to be directed to Russia, constituting only 20.1% of exports during the period of January-September.

亚美尼亚最大的出口对象国仍然是俄罗斯，占了当年1-9月的出口的20.1%。

Again, the Russian Federation’s share in the import structure is dominant at 21.4%

同样从俄罗斯进口也占亚美尼亚当年进口的21.4%。

至少亚美尼亚与俄罗斯的经济关系是密切的，亚美尼亚在经济上依赖着大俄罗斯。

分享一下该报告吧：

链接：https://pan.baidu.com/s/1ryiIbxhGsrImFkb2bSVY-g

提取码：bdc1

参考

1. ^ http://www.fes-china.org/zh/about-fes.html
2. ^ https://en.wanweibaike.com/wiki-Armenian%20dram