如何评价特朗普声称伊拉克战争中伊拉克没有大规模杀伤性武器？ 第1页

他，很快就会揭发外星人的事儿了。

一个受不了别人骂他说谎的疯子，注定不会是个骗子，连累了祖国与子孙，只配是个傻子！

已经有神秘的美国人出来说，他这是在威胁，不让他连任，就会抖出更大的国家猛料，把这些前总统和大佬都断送掉。

小布什不是早都认了？

When Saddam didn’t use WMD on our troops, I was relieved. When we didn’t discover the stockpile soon after the fall of Baghdad, I was surprised. When the whole summer passed without finding any, I was alarmed. The press corps constantly raised the question, “Where are the WMD?”
I was asking the same thing. The military and intelligence teams assured me they were looking constantly. They examined hidden sites Saddam had used during the Gulf War. They collected intelligence and responded to tips. At one point, the CIA heard that large canisters had been spotted from a bridge over the Euphrates River. Navy frogmen deployed to the scene. They found nothing. A high-ranking official from the United Arab Emirates brought drawings of tunnels he believed Saddam had used to hide weapons. We dug up the ground. Nothing materialized.
George Tenet recruited David Kay, the UN’s chief weapons inspector in Iraq in 1991, to lead a new inspections team. Kay conducted a thorough search of Iraq and found irrefutable evidence that Saddam had lied to the world and violated Resolution 1441. “Iraq’s WMD programs spanned more than two decades, involved thousands of people, billions of dollars, and were elaborately shielded by security and deception operations that continued even beyond the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom,” he told Congress in October 2003. But there was one thing Kay did not find: the WMD stockpiles everyone expected.
The left trotted out a new mantra: “Bush Lied, People Died.” The charge was illogical. If I wanted to mislead the country into war, why would I pick an allegation that was certain to be disproven publicly shortly after we invaded the country? The charge was also dishonest. Members of the previous administration, John Kerry, John Edwards, and the vast majority of Congress had all read the same intelligence that I had and concluded Iraq had WMD. So had intelligence agencies around the world. Nobody was lying. We were all wrong. The absence of WMD stockpiles did not change the fact that Saddam was a threat. In January 2004, David Kay said, “It was reasonable to conclude that Iraq posed an imminent threat. … What we learned during the inspection made Iraq a more dangerous place potentially than in fact we thought it was even before the war.”
Still, I knew the failure to find WMD would transform public perception of the war. While the world was undoubtedly safer with Saddam gone, the reality was that I had sent American troops into combat based in large part on intelligence that proved false. That was a massive blow to our credibility—my credibility—that would shake the confidence of the American people.
No one was more shocked or angry than I was when we didn’t find the weapons. I had a sickening feeling every time I thought about it. I still do.

没有人比我更angry.jpg

借着此事儿，我们可以来预测一下特朗普的最终结局。

当然，在谈特朗普之前，我想先谈谈另外一个人：韩国瑜。

台湾高雄市长韩国瑜罢免案6日正式投票，台湾地区选务机构公布的数据显示，开票结束后，同意票93万9090票、不同意票2万5051票。同意票数超过57万4996票的门槛，韩国瑜确定被罢免。

当年刮遍台湾的韩旋风，最终以起被罢免而告终，还搭上了深蓝同志。

为什么要先说韩国瑜呢？因为特朗普和韩国瑜，两个人在某种程度上有相似性。

首先，两个人都是政治素人。

韩国瑜自称“卖菜郎”，到处宣传自己的光头，连理发都要开视频直播；特朗普更不用提，在当选美国45th总统之前，毫无政治经验，一个纯粹的不能再纯粹的素人。

两人不仅同样是政治素人，就连当选之路也很有相似性。韩特两人都是靠着社交媒体，通过不同于以往政客们的嘴脸，用最朴实无华的方式，吸引了一批忠实的政治粉丝，完成初步的民意积累，进而当选。

再者，两个人都面临着极为复杂的内部形势。

特朗普现在面临的内部局势，疫情、种族争端、失业、经济下滑，放在之前美国历史任何一位总统任上，随便其中一个问题，都能把总统搞得焦头烂额。除了这些国内问题，他时时刻刻还得提防对手民主党的绞杀。现在的特朗普只是故作镇定而已，实则心里慌的一匹，其总统地位岌岌可危，地堡男孩的外号，可不是虚的。

韩国瑜也一样，在被罢免之前，在tw整体经济形势不明朗的大环境下，高雄并没有取得和韩国瑜口号相匹配的经济成绩。另外，以蔡为首的民进党势力，对韩国瑜极尽绞杀之手段，而百年kmt又烂又怂，让韩自己一人去承担罢免行动，把韩推上了悬崖，最终重重摔下。

第三，两个人面临的外部形势同样复杂。

特朗普面临的外部形势，主要的压力来自于我们。虽然很多时候都是美国先出手，但作为世界第一大国，如果不能保持“一出手、就成功”的压制态势，那将会是很丢面子的事情。所以，虽然很多时候都是特朗普主动发起进攻，但如果我们能扛得住，对美国造成的压力也将是巨大的。

韩国瑜，当年提出“四靠政策”，就代表着他已经不是我们欢迎的人。当然，包括所有的tw政治人物，外部压力同样来自我们，其中细节大家也能猜出的八九不离十，毕竟，现在梧桐已经成为民意共识，而且是可以拿到新闻发布会上打嘴炮的事实。

好了，说了两人的相同点，再说说不同点。

一、特朗普家底大，血条厚。

懂王现在虽然焦头烂额，甚至口不择言，胡说八道，得罪了许多人。但归根结底，特总好歹是个大富翁，而且还有最广泛的红脖子群体支持，加之其一直在践行各种“美国优先”、“MAGA”（注意引号）的政策，其政治、经济的基本盘还是相对稳固的。即使是面对混乱的国内形势和严峻的国际变化，特总勉强能稳坐钓鱼台。

而韩国瑜就没那么幸运了，既没有强大的经济实力，又没能笼络住最基本的政治盘底，在KMT内部没有后劲儿，面对蔡团体的绞杀之时毫无还手之力。

二、美国成熟的资本主义制度

很多人可能会说，不对啊，tw也是资本主义制度啊，但我们要注意“成熟”两字。

正是美国这套运作了二百余年成熟的资本主义制度（资本家坐庄、精英群体表态、媒体运作等），相对而言保护了特朗普。而tw这种挂着资本主义mz的政治制度，却只会干一些低端的挑拨民意的生意，其落后程度不言而喻。

对于政治素人而言，美国成熟的资本主义制度运作机制稳定可靠，除非是世界大战、内战或者革命这种大场面，亦或是尼克松那种“大新闻”，才能对体制内的政治人物造成冲击。而tw这种照葫芦画瓢、落后的资本主义制度，韩国瑜这种素人，进场之时，就已经注定了其命运。

最后，在分析特朗普和韩国瑜的相同点的基础上，借住韩国瑜被罢免的结果，综合考虑特朗普的独特优势，个人认为特朗普的结局，很有可能走上与韩国瑜相同的道路：政治坠涯。

1、2020年大选失败；

2、2020年大选以微弱优势当选，但任上遭遇弹劾，即使弹劾不成功，也会元气大伤，成为美国总统历史上独特的风景，当然，也有可能因为身体原因等其他因素终止总统生涯。总之，特朗普不会是一位善终的总统。