曾有哪些错误的对科技的预测？ 第1页

干货来了：

高速火车是不可能实现的，因为高速下人将无法呼吸，乘客会因窒息而死。——某Phd

"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." -- Dr. Dionysus Lardner, 1793-1859

钻油？用钻头能钻出石油？你脑子进水了么？——1859年德雷克要勘探石油时候的反对者

"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

汽车已经没什么可发展的了。这些年内燃机的原理就没有什么改进么。——美国科学杂志，1909

"That the automobile has reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the last year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced." -- Scientific American, 1909

能发明的基本上都被发明了。——美国专利局局长 查尔斯·迪尔，1899

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

我觉得相对论和原子学说一样都是荒谬的。——著名物理学家、哲学家、数学家、流体力学及波动学家 恩斯特·马赫

"I can accept the theory of relativity as little as I can accept the existence of atoms and other such dogmas." -- Ernst Mach (1838-1916)

任何比空气重的机器都不可能飞的起来。——绝对温标发明人、第一和第二热力公式提出者、近代热力学奠基者、英国皇家科学学会会长 开尔文 爵士

"Heavier than air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin (1824-1907)

无线电没有未来。——开尔文 爵士

"Radio has no future." -- Lord Kelvin(1824-1907)

X射线就是骗人的货。——开尔文 爵士

"X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

电磁风暴和太阳斑没什么联系，至于太阳周期那更是个巧合。——开尔文 爵士

"It seems as if we may also be forced to conclude that the supposed connection between magnetic storms and sun-spots is unreal, and that the seeming agreement between periods has been a mere coincidence." -- Lord Kelvin, 1892

美国人用电话，我们英国不需要的。因为我们有足够多的儿童信使。——英国邮报局总工程师 威廉·普利丝，1876

"The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." -- Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.

戈达德教授（火箭工程学先驱，钱学森先生的祖师）显然不理解作用力和反作用力原理。在真空中是没有受力物体的，他连这些高中生们该懂的知识都不知道。——1920年《纽约时报》的一篇报道。该报道在1969年美国阿波罗登月后被撤除。

"Professor Goddard...does not know the relation of action to re-action, and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react....he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." -- 1920 New York Times editorial on Robert Goddard's rocket work. [The New York Times printed a retraction to this---in 1969, when the Apollo 11 astronauts were on their way to the Moon.]

登陆月球或月球行走对当前的技术来说太难了，要想实现起码也要200年后才行。——科学文摘 1948

"Landing and moving about on the moon offers so many serious problems for human beings that it may take science another 200 years to lick them." -- Science Digest, 1948

虽然理论上和技术上来说电视是可行的，但是从商业角度来看，电视没啥搞头，根本挣不到钱嘛。——真空三极管发明人、无线电之父、电视之父 李·德富雷斯特，1926

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming." -- Lee De Forest, 1926

最近出现的“无马客运”（老式汽车）只是给富人用的奢侈品，当然未来他的价格会降一些，但无论如何汽车永远也不会像自行车那样适合大众。——文学摘要，1899

"The ordinary 'horseless carriage' is at present a luxury for the wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle." -- Literary Digest, 1899

火车的速度已经提升到了15mph（24km/h），这太快了，太危险了！火车声音辣么大，沿途说不定会点燃庄稼，吓死家畜，吓哭女人和儿童啊！尼玛太危险了，我建议大家不要乘坐。——美国第八任总统 马丁·范布伦

"Railroad Carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of 15 mph by engines which, in addition to endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to the crops, scaring the livestock, and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed." -- Martin Van Buren

物理学，会在六个月之内走到尽头。——诺贝尔奖获得者、近代量子力学创始人之一 马克思·波恩

"Physics, as we know it, will be over in six months." -- Max Born, 1928

空气阻力和物体运动速度的三次方成正比。也就是说，以我们现在的科技来说，飞行器速度不可能比汽车或火车快。——哈佛大学 天文台天文学家 威廉·亨利·皮克林，1910

"The resistance of air increases as the square of the speed and works as the cube [of speed].... It is clear that with our present devices there is no hope of aircraft competing for racing speed with either our locomotives or automobiles." -- William H. Pickering, Director, Harvard College Observatory, 1910

飞机会越来越快的。可是运动员拿它作为比赛项目就可以了，因为飞机是不可能商业化的。——飞机发明者之一、莱特兄弟同期的航空先驱 沙尼特，1910

"The [flying] machines will eventually be fast; they will be used in sport but they should not be thought of as commercial carriers." -- Octave Chanute, 1910

核反应产生的能量是很微弱的，你们要是想用这个方式来获取能量那简直是做梦。——原子核物理之父 卢瑟福，1930

"The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations of these atoms is talking moonshine." -- Ernest Rutherford, 1930

现在我们连利用核能最微弱的证据都没有。——爱因斯坦，1932

"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will be obtainable." -- Albert Einstein, 1932

交流电是无用的，因为他太危险了，他可以像闪电一样劈死一个人。直流电才是安全的。——爱迪生

"Fooling around with alternating currents is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever. It's too dangerous. . . it could kill a man as quick as a bolt of lightning. Direct current is safe." -- Thomas Edison

我觉得全世界可能只能卖出五台计算机吧。——沃森，IBM主席，1943

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

演员们表演就可以了，谁TM愿意听他们的声音呢？——华纳兄弟公司创始人 哈利·华纳

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

640K内存妥妥够用了。——比尔盖茨，1981

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981

艾滋病就像只温顺的小猫，没什么。——1988，UC伯克利大学生物分子学教授 迪斯贝格

“That virus is a pussycat.” — Dr. Peter Duesberg, molecular-biology professor at U.C. Berkeley, on HIV, 1988